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Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots – Point Spread Selection

Time: 8:30 PM EST Sunday November 24, 2013, ESPN

The New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos in a AFC conference match up.

In their last game the Denver Broncos handed the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season 27-17 at home, as a 8 point favorite.

New England lost 24-20 to Carolina on the road last Monday night that had a controversial reversed penalty call on the final play handing the Panthers the victory and sending Brady into a tirade.

New England beat the Broncos 31-21 at home in their last meeting on Oct 7/12. The Patriots have won their last 3 over the Broncos and 6 out of their last 10 meetings.

New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Broncos.

The Favorite has a 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.

The home team has covered the spread in 4 out of the last 5 games.

This season New England is 5-0 at home and Denver is 3-1 on the road.

Betting Odds at Bovada
Point Spread: Denver -2.5
Over/Under Total Line: 53
Moneyline: Broncos -132 / Patriots +112

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Denver Broncos: 9-1 SU 6-3-1 ATS
New England Patriots: 7-3 SU 5-5 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• DEN is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
• DEN is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• DEN is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• NE is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• NE is 30-12-1 ATS in their last 43 games following a SU loss.
• NE is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Denver Broncos: 29.13
New England Patriots: 25.14

Key Player Injuries

[G] 11/23/2013 – Chris Kuper Prob Sunday (Ankle)
[LB] 11/23/2013 – Nate Irving Prob Sunday (Shoulder)
[TE] 11/23/2013 – Joel Dreessen Prob Sunday (Knee)
[T] 11/23/2013 – Orlando Franklin Prob Sunday (Ankle)
[QB] 11/23/2013 – Peyton Manning Prob Sunday (Ankle)
[S] 11/23/2013 – Duke Ihenacho Prob Sunday (Ankle)
[T] 11/23/2013 – Winston Justice Prob Sunday (Finger)
[C] 11/23/2013 – J.D. Walton Prob Sunday (Ankle)
[WR] 11/22/2013 – Wes Welker Prob Sunday (Concussion)
[TE] 11/22/2013 – Julius Thomas Ques Sunday (Knee)
[CB] 11/18/2013 – Champ Bailey Ques Sunday (Foot)
[S] 11/19/2013 – Rahim Moore Out Indefinitely (Leg)
[LB] 10/27/2013 – Stewart Bradley I-R (Wrist)
[C] 10/7/2013 – Dan Koppen I-R (Leg)
[T] 9/29/2013 – Ryan Clady I-R (Foot)

New England
[WR] 11/23/2013 – Matt Slater Prob Sunday (Wrist)
[QB] 11/23/2013 – Tom Brady Prob Sunday (Shoulder)
[WR] 11/23/2013 – Danny Amendola Prob Sunday (Groin)
[RB] 11/23/2013 – Shane Vereen Prob Sunday (Wrist)
[TE] 11/23/2013 – Rob Gronkowski Prob Sunday (Back)
[LB] 11/23/2013 – Brandon Spikes Prob Sunday (Knee)
[CB] 11/23/2013 – Alfonzo Dennard Ques Sunday (Knee)
[S] 11/23/2013 – Steve Gregory Ques Sunday (Finger)
[CB] 11/22/2013 – Aqib Talib Ques Sunday (Hip)
[CB] 11/22/2013 – Kyle Arrington Ques Sunday (Groin)
[KR] 11/19/2013 – Leon Washington Ques Sunday (Ankle)
[TE] 11/23/2013 – Michael Hoomanawanui Sunday (Knee)
[DL] 11/3/2013 – Tommy Kelly I-R (Knee)
[T] 10/29/2013 – Sebastian Volimer I-R (Leg)
[LB] 10/16/2013 – Jerod Mayo I-R (Pectoral)
[DL] 10/3/2013 – Vince Wilfork I-R (Foot)

Next Game
Denver @ Kansas City
New England @ Houston

Our Selection : The Broncos rank No. 4 in rushing defense allowing just 92.7 yards per game. However, most of the low numbers came earlier in the season. As of late Denver has allowed 112 or more yards rushing in 5 straight games. That is good news for the Patriots who need to run the ball to win. As we mentioned last week New England struggles offensively when their rushing attack can’t get its bearings. Case in point would be that their 4 lowest game rushing totals resulted in a 3 point home win over the Jets and losses to the Bengals, Jets on the road and Carolina. It is also important to note that the Patriots have yet to lose at home (5-0) with all 3 of their losses being on the road.
We really like New England in this spot with our only concern being injuries to their secondary. So make sure you check the inactive list before laying down.
Take the New England Patriots +2.5 at Bovada and get up to a 50% Bonus.

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