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Elite Eight: Dayton vs. Florida Total Pick

Time: 6:09 PM EST Saturday March 29, 2014, TBS

Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee

The 11th seed Dayton Flyers face the top-seed Florida Gators in the Elite 8 match up in the South Region.

In their last games: Dayton beat Stanford 82-72 and Florida beat UCLA 79-68.

In their win over Stanford Dayton jumped out to a 10-point halftime lead, shot the ball well, and held the Cardinal to a FG% of 37.9%.

In their win over UCLA Florida played decent defense, but they shot the ball very well with a FG% of 50%.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Dayton has won 7 of their last 8 games.

Florida is riding a 29-game winning streak.

Florida has the nation’s 3rd ranked defense.

Florida is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 NCAA tournament games.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Florida -10.5
Total Line: 132.5
Money Line: Flyers +475 / Gators -650

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Dayton Flyers: 26-10 SU 20-12 ATS
Florida Gators: 35-2 SU 18-14-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• DAY is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• DAY is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• DAY has an Over record of 5-3 in their last 8 games.
• FLA is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• FLA is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• FLA has an Under record of 31-14-1 in their last 46 overall.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Dayton Flyers: 83.93
Florida Gators: 93.49

Key Player Injuries

[G] 03/24/2014 – Scottie Wilbekin probable Thursday vs. UCLA ( Knee )
[F] 12/21/2013 – Damontre Harris out for season ( Dismissed )
[G] 12/03/2013 – Eli Carter redshirt ( Leg )
[G] 11/20/2013 – Dillon Graham out for season ( Hip )

No injuries to report at this time.

Total Pick:

Admittedly Syracuse and Ohio State don’t scare very many defenses, but Dayton did hold both teams to under 60 points. Florida is a step up offensively, but at 194th ranked with 70.6 points per game we are not talking a big step up. Defensively both teams were stellar with the Gators ranking 3rd in scoring and the Flyers 96th. There is no reason to think that will change on Saturday.
Take the UNDER 132.5.

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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