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Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Pick and Betting Odds

The 56-26 Houston Rockets host the 50-32 Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of a Western Conference playoff series on 4/18/2015 at Toyota Center, Houston, TX; Tipoff is at 9:30 PM ET.

Wagering Odds

Point Spread: Rockets -5.5
Over/Under Total Line: 210

In their last game the Mavericks were at home and beat the Portland Trailblazers 114-98 where they covered as a 6.5-point favorite. They did not cover in their previous game and in their last 10 games they are 4-6 ATS. The total for the Blazers gave went Over and that has the winning bet in Dallas’ last 6 games. In 8 of their last 10 games the total has gone Over. Dallas won 4 of their last 5 games of the season and in their last 10 games they are 5-5.

On the season the Mavs are 16-23-2 ATS at home and 20-21 ATS on the road. In their last game on the road they did not cover the spread, but they did in their previous 3. The Under has been the winning bet on the road for the season for Dallas, as they have an O/U road record of 18-23 and an O/U home record of 20-20-1. However, in their last 5 road games the posted total has gone Over every time.

The Rockets were at home in their last game where they beat the Utah Jazz 117-91 and they covered the spread as an 11.5-point betting favorite. Houston has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. The total for the Jazz game went Over, and while the previous game went Under the 4 before that went Over. In their last 10 games the Rockets are 6-4 ATS and they have an O/U record of 6-4. Overall, the Rockets have won 3 straight and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

The Rockets have been a solid betting team at home this season (26-15 ATS) and a decent one on the road (22-19 ATS). Houston has covered the spread in their last 3 home games. On the season the Rockets have a home O/U record of 19-22 and a road O/U record of 21-20. In their last 7 home games the posted total has gone Over every time.

The Rockets won 3 of 4 games facing the Mavericks this season. Houston covered in 3 of 4 games against Dallas this season including both of their home meetings. In all 4 games this season between these 2 teams the Under was the winning bet.

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Some other angles to consider:

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Mavericks.

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Mavericks.

This season the Rockets are 30-11 at home and the Mavericks are 23-18 on the road.

SU and ATS Records

Dallas Mavericks: 50-32 SU / 36-44-2 ATS
Houston Rockets: 56-26 SU / 48-34 ATS

Dallas at Houston Key Betting Trends

• DAL is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
• DAL is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
• DAL has an Over record of 6-0 in their last 6 games.
• HOU is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 home games.
• HOU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• HOU has an Over record of 7-0 in their last 7 home games.

Sagarin Rankings

Dallas Mavericks: 93.19
Houston Rockets: 94.35

Key Player Injuries


04/16/15 Chandler Parsons SF Knee Questionable for Game 1 at Houston


04/09/15 Donatas Motiejunas PF Back Out for season
03/30/15 Patrick Beverley PG Wrist Out for season

Even after picking up Rajon Rondo and Amar’e Stoudemire during the season the Mavs did not play well after the All Star break and slipped to the 7th seed in the Western Conference.

Free NBA Playoff Prediction

One of the keys for the Rockets is the play of Dwight Howard and after missing 41 games this season, including 25 straight in the 2nd half, he is almost back to full strength. In last season’s first round he was a beast averaging 26 ppg, 13.7 rpg, and shooting 62.5% from the floor in the series win over the Blazers. Not good for the Mavs’ who rank 25th in the league in opponents’ points allowed. The 2 losses for Dallas at Houston this season were relatively close, but the Rockets will still win and cover the 5.5-point spread in Game 1 of this series.

Take the ROCKETS -5.5

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