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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Total Pick

Time: 7 PM EST Monday April 21, 2014 ESPN

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds in a National League Central match up.

In their last games: The Reds beat the Chicago Cubs 8-2 and the Pirates lost to Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 in 14 innings.

In their win over the Cubs the Reds had 15 hits and scored all of their 8 runs in the 4th through 7th innings.

In their loss to the Brewers the Pirates had the lead in the 9th, but gave up a game tying HR and then in the 14th gave up another to lose.

The Reds have taken 2 of 3 from the Pirates this season including the last 2.

Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Don’t you think…
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The Reds are 4-0 in Mike Leake’s last 4 starts against the Pirates.

The Pirates are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Reds.

In the last 5 games between these 2 teams in Pittsburgh the total has gone Over 4 times.

Since pitching 6 scoreless innings in a no decision his first start of the season Nelson Liriano is 0-3 since with an ERA of 5.17.

Pitching Match Up
Cincinnati Reds: Mike (2-1, 2.95 ERA)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Nelson Liriano (0-3, 3.96 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Reds +128 / Pirates -138
Run Line: Pittsburgh -1.5 +160
Total Line: 7

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Cincinnati Reds: 8-10 SU / O/U 9-8 / Run Line W/L 10-8
Pittsburgh Pirates: 8-11 SU / O/U 9-8 / Run Line W/L 6-13

Key Betting Trends
• CINCY is 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
• CINCY is 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• CINCY has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games.
• PITT is 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• PITT is 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
• PITT has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games.

Key Player Injuries

Ryan Ludwick OF Out Apr 19 toe Day-to-day
Trevor Bell RP D.L. Apr 8 elbow Late April?
Skip Schumaker 2B D.L. Mar 30 shoulder Early May?
Aroldis Chapman RP D.L. Mar 30 head Mid-May?
Mat Latos SP D.L. Mar 30 elbow Out indefinitely
Brett Marshall SP D.L. Mar 30 finger Out indefinitely
Jack Hannahan 3B D.L. Mar 30 shoulder Out indefinitely

Jordy Mercer SS Out Apr 20 ankle Day-to-day

Total Pick:

Both pitchers had quality starts against their opponents last week in Cincinnati and have had success in the past. So, I’m not going to call for a complete reversal in form here, but the number is low enough to make the over a value play tonight. The Reds got to Liriano for 3 runs in 7 innings last Wednesday and may need to only match that number to support tonight’s play. Likewise for the Pirates who got to Leake for 3 runs in 6.2 innings in the last meeting. Two of the three went over the total at Miller Park and I believe that’s how it will play out tonight.
Take Over 7 Runs.

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