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Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies Total Pick

Time: 7:05 PM EST Saturday May 17, 2014 CSN

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds in a National League match up.

In their last games: In yesterday’s game between these 2 teams the reds beat the Phillies 3-0.

In their game with the Phillies yesterday Cincinnati’s Alfredo Simon only gave up 5 hits and struck out 8 in the shutout.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

The Reds are 1-4 in Homer Bailey’s last 5 road starts and 3-7 in their last 10 starts overall with him getting the start.

The Phillies are 0-6 in Cole Hamels’ last 6 starts.

The Phillies are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against the Reds.

The Phillies are 11-0 in Hamels’ last 11 starts against the Reds.

Pitching Match Up
Cincinnati Reds: Homer Bailey (3-2, 4.72 ERA)
Philadelphia Phillies: Cole Hamels (0-2, 5.32 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Reds +108 / Phillies -118
Run Line: Philadelphia -1.5 +175
Total Line: 7.5 Under (-120)

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Cincinnati Reds: 19-21 SU / O/U 15-23 / Run Line W/L 22-18
Philadelphia Phillies: 17-22 SU / O/U 20-16 / Run Line W/L 18-21

Key Betting Trends
• CINCY is 1-5 in their last 6 road games.
• CINCY is 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win.
• CINCY has an Under record of 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
• PHIL is 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
• PHIL is 0-5 in their last 5 home games.
• PHIL has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Key Player Injuries

Joey Votto 1B Out May 16 quadriceps Status uncertain
Jay Bruce OF D.L. May 6 knee Early June
Tony Cingrani SP D.L. May 1 shoulder May 18
Trevor Bell RP D.L. Apr 8 elbow Late April?
Brett Marshall SP D.L. Mar 30 finger Out indefinitely
Mat Latos SP D.L. Mar 30 elbow Early June?
Jack Hannahan 3B D.L. Mar 30 shoulder Out indefinitely

Ben Revere OF Out May 16 illness Day-to-day
Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez S D.L. Mar 27 shoulder Late May?
Ethan Martin SP D.L. Mar 27 shoulder Late May?

Total Pick:

I’m not too thrilled with the home plate ump for this game and his 9.60 runs per game average in 2014, but there is enough solid data to back the under here. Both teams are on an under trend with the Reds’ games falling below the total in 5 straight and 8-1-1 in their last 10 and the Phillies’ in 3 straight, Historically lefty Cole Hamels has been exceptional against the Reds and although he hasn’t pitched against the team since 2012 that data tends to hold true over the years. It’s not like Cincinnati has been hitting left handers this year managing only a .220 average. The Reds counter with Homer Bailey who started twice against Philadelphia last season holding them to zero runs over 15 innings. Take Under 7.5 (-120).

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