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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview – Point Spread Pick

Time: 8:40 PM EST Monday November 4, 2013, ESPN

The Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears in a NFC North divisional match up.

In their last games the Chicago lost a shootout 45-41 to the Redskins on the road, while Green Bay had little trouble defeating the Minnesota Vikings 44-31 on the road as a 7.5 point favorite.

The Packers beat the Bears 21-13 last December in Chicago and look to extend their winning streak to 7 over the Bears. Green has won
8 out of their last 10 times they met.

These 2 teams have a Under record of 11-1 in their last 12 games and also have a Under record of 4-1 in the last 4 games in Green Bay.

Green Bay has covered the spread in 19 out of the last 26 times these 2 teams faced each other.

The point spread favorite has won all of the last 5 times these divisional rivals have faced off.

This season Green Bay is 3-0 at home and Chicago is 1-2 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Green Bay -10.5
Over/Under Total Line: 51
Moneyline: Chicago +420 / Green Bay -535

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Chicago Bears: 4-3 SU 1-5-1 ATS
Green Bay Packers: 5-2 SU 5-2 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• CHI is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• CHI has gone Over the posted total in 6 out of last 7 vs. the NFC.
• CHI is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• GB is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
• GB is 15-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• GB has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 home games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Chicago Bears: 18.92
Green Bay Packers: 27.8

Key Player Injuries

[CB] 11/01/2013 – Charles Tillman Prob Monday (Knee)
[QB] 10/21/2013 – Jay Cutler Late Nov (Groin)
[LB] 10/21/2013 – Lance Briggs Late Nov (Shoulder)
[LB] 10/28/2013 – D.J. Williams I-R (Chest)
[LB] 10/9/2013 – Nate Collins I-R (Knee)
[LB] 10/7/2013 – Kelvin Hayden I-R (Hamstring)
[LB] 9/27/2013 – Henry Melton I-R (Knee)

Green Bay
[WR] 11/03/2013 – James Jones Prob Monday (Knee)
[LB] 10/28/2013 – Brad Jones Ques Monday (Hamstring)
[LB] 10/28/2013 – Nick Perry Ques Monday (Foot)
[LB] 10/31/2013 – Clay Matthews Mid Nov (Thumb)
[TE] 10/21/2013 – Jermichael Finley Out indefinitely (Neck)
[TE] 10/16/2013 – Ryan Taylor Mid Nov (Knee)
[G] 10/15/2013 – Greg Van Roten I-R (Foot)
[WR] 10/15/2013 – Randall Cobb Elig Week 15 (Knee)
[T] 10/7/2013 – Bryan Bulaga I-R (Knee)
[LB] 10/7/2013 – Rob Francois I-R (Achilles)

Next Game
Detroit @ Chicago
Philadelphia @ Green Bay

Our Selection : The Bears D is beat up right now. Especially at the linebacker position with LBs Briggs out for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury and D. J. Williams pectoral tear gone for the season. It doesn’t help that their replacements are rookies Jon Bostic and Kashhem Green.
The Packers will be licking their chops with their 7th ranked rushing offense (141.4 yards per game) firing on all cylinders.
The Bears have done a better job running the ball this season which has lead to less pressure on the QBs. That may be a problem this week facing Green Bay’s 4th ranked rushing defense.
The total line on this game is 51 which we find high. The Packers have also had a rash of injuries to the their LBs, but have weathered the storm and are starting to get bodies back. Green Bay’s defense has been super solid in recent weeks holding 4 of their last 5 opponents to fewer than 300 yards. We think the key here is the running game. The Packers game plan will be run heavy eating the clock and shortening the game. We believe the Bears will not have much success running the ball and we do not think that QB Josh McCown can move the team if it becomes one dimensional. Take the UNDER 51 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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