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Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Over Under Pick

Time: 1:00 PM EST Sunday December 15, 2013, ESPN

The Jacksonville Jaguars look to win their 4th game in a row when they host the Buffalo Bills in a AFC conference match-up on Sunday. The Jaguars lost their first 8 games of the season but have turned it around winning 4 of their last 5 and will be looking to win their second game at home this year.

In their last games Buffalo lost 27-6 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road as a 2.5 point underdog. The Jaguars beat the Houston Texans 27-20 for their fist home victory of this season.

The Buffalo Bills beat Jacksonville 34-18 in their meeting on Dec 2/12 at home as a 6 point favorite. The Bills have won 6 out the last 10 times they’ve met.

The Bills have covered the number in 7 out of their last 10 meetings and also have a record of 4-1 ATS in the last 5 times they played in Jacksonville.

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The Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these 2 teams.

This season Jacksonville is 1-5 at home and Buffalo is 1-5 on the road.

Betting Odds at Bovada
Point Spread: Buffalo -2
Over/Under Total Line: 43
Moneyline: Bills -127 / Jaguars +107

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Buffalo Bills: 4-9 SU 6-7 ATS
Jacksonville Jaguars: 4-9 SU 5-8 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• BUF is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.
• BUF is 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• BUF is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
• JAC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a AFC team.
• JAC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• JAC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Buffalo Bills: 13.77
Jacksonville Jaguars: 13.69

Key Player Injuries

BILLS
[CB] 12/12/2013 – Ron Brooks Prob Sunday (Head)
[DB] 12/10/2013 – Jonathan Meeks Prob Sunday (Ankle)
[LB] 12/13/2013 – Kiko Alonso Ques Sunday (Knee)
[G] 12/13/2013 – Kraig Urbik Ques Sunday (Foot)
[K] 10/7/2013 – Dustin Hopkins I-R (Groin)
[DT] 9/29/2013 – Alex Carrington I-R (Quadricep)

JAGUARS
[WR] 12/13/2013 – Cecil Shorts Prob Sunday (Groin)
[DT] 12/13/2013 – Roy Miller Ques Sunday (Shoulder)
[WR] 12/9/2013 – Allen Reisner Ques Sunday (Knee)
[S] 12/9/2013 – Josh Evans Ques Sunday (Shoulder)
[CB] 12/9/2013 – Alan Ball Ques Sunday (Head)
[RB] 12/13/2013 – Maurice Jones-Drew Doub Sunday (Hamstring)
[WR] 11/1/2013 – Justin Blackmon Out for the season (Suspension)
[WR] 12/9/2013 – Stephen Burton I-R (Concussion)
[RB] 12/9/2013 – Justin Forsett I-R (Foot)
[WR] 11/23/2013 – Stephen Williams I-R (Achilles)
[T] 10/8/2013 – Luke Joeckel I-R (Ankle)
[CB] 8/27/2013 – Jeremy Harris I-R (Back)

Next Game on Deck
Miami @ Buffalo
Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Over/Under Pick : The Jaguars have been super solid against the run in their last 5, so we think that the Bills will not have much success in the running game. Where Jacksonville has struggled is with passing defense ranking 26th in the league. Luckily for the Jaguars Buffalo’s passing game has been putrid on the road. The blame can’t all go on EJ Manuel’s back especially last week in Tampa when his offensive line allowed 7 sacks to the Buccaneers. EJ though has not been strong on the road and should be kept in check by the Jag’s defense. Jacksonville’s offense looked good in Cleveland as well as early against Houston, but the Bills unit will be a step up. They’ll be without offensive cog Maurice Drew Jones who’s improved play was key to the Jaguars offensive turnaround.
Buffalo lives and dies by the turnover and this game could blow up with a couple of pick 6’s, but we believe that the both teams will keep the play calling conservative. Look for this game to be a 20 -17 type game.
Take the Under 43 at Bovada and get up to a 50% Bonus.

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