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Bowling Green Falcons vs. Northern Illinois Huskies – ATS Pick

Time: 8:00 PM EST Friday December 6, 2013, [email protected]

The Northern Illinois Huskies host the Bowling Green Falcons in a MAC conference match-up.

In their last games Bowling Green beat Buffalo 24-7 on the road as a 3.5 point favorite. The Huskies won over Western Michigan 33-14 at Northern Illinois as a 5 touchdown favorite.

In their last meeting the Huskies had little trouble with the Falcons, pounding them 45-14 on Nov 8/2011 at Bowling Green as a 6 point favorite. Northern Illinois has won their their last 3 meetings with the Falcons and 5 out of the last 9 dating back to November 1985.

These 2 teams have gone under the posted total in 4 out of their last 5 meetings.

This season Northern Illinois Huskies is 5-0 at home and Bowling Green is 4-2 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Northern Illinois -3.5
Over/Under Total Line: 58.5
Moneyline: Falcons +110 / Huskies -150

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Bowling Green Falcons: 9-3 SU 9-3 ATS
Northern Illinois Huskies: 12-0 SU 8-4 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• Bowling Green is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
• Bowling Green is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
• Bowling Green is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.
• Northern Illinois is 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games.
• Northern Illinois is 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games overall.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Bowling Green Falcons: 76.45
Northern Illinois Huskies: 77.87

Key Player Injuries

[RB] 12/1/2013 – Jamel Martin Ques Friday (Undisclosed)
[DB] 12/1/2013 – Justin Ford Ques Friday (Concussion)
[RB] 12/1/2013 – Fed Coppetd Ques Friday (Concussion)
[LB] 11/12/2013 – Gabe Martin Out for the season (Knee)
[WR] 11/12/2013 – Jared Cohen Out indefinitely (Ankle)
[WR] 10/23/2013 – Chris Gallon Out for the season (Knee)
[WR] 9/12/2013 – Jermal Hosley Out for the season (Knee)

[WR] 12/3/2013 – Tommylee Lewis Prob Friday (Toe)
[RB] 11/20/2013 – Akeem Daniels Out indefinitely (Undisclosed)
[RB] 10/16/2013 – Keith Harris Jr. Out for the season (Ankle)
[CB] 9/26/2013 – Marckie Hayes Out for the season (Concussion)
[LB] 9/24/2013 – Rasheem Lemon Out indefinitely (Suspension)

Point Spread Selection : Falcons recent games looks good at first glance with Bowling Green holding their last 4 opponents to 7 or less points per game. The rushing defense was especially stingy with 97 or fewer yards on the ground allowed in each of those games. The run defense hasn’t been so dominate all season with a few of Bowling Green’s opponents running for over 200 yards. Like most college football teams, when your opponent out-rushes there is a good chance you’ll lose the game. That was the case with Falcons who lost all 3 of the games where they allowed over 200 yards rushing and were out-rushed. There is something to be said about momentum, but this week’s opponent Northern Illinois’ rushing attack is 4th in the nation. Bowling Green could try to stack the box, but that could be dangerous as the Huskies can also beat you through the air averaging 223.4 yards per game.
It’s been a nice run for the Falcons, but it all ends here on Friday with an easy win by Northern Illinois.
Take the Northern Illinois Huskies -3 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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