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Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs – Point Spread Prediction

Time: 8:00 PM EST Friday November 22, 2013,ESPN2

The San Diego State Aztecs host the Boise State Broncos in a MWC Conference match-up.

In their last games Boise State laid a beating on the Wyoming Cowboys at home easily covering the 24 points. San Diego State needed OT to get past Hawaii 28-21 on the road as a 5.5 point favorite.

In their last meeting on Nov 3/12 San Diego State upset the Boise State 21-19 as a 16 point underdog at Bronco Stadium.

The Boise State Broncos have gone Over the posted total in 11 of their last 15 road games. The Bronco also have Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning home record.

San Diego State has a Over record of 7-2 in last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

This season San Diego State is 2-3 at home and Boise State is 2-3 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Boise State -6
Over/Under Total Line: 57.5
Moneyline: Broncos -230 / Aztecs +190

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Boise State Broncos: 7-3 SU 6-4 ATS
San Diego State Aztecs: 6-4 SU 5-5 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• Boise St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
• Boise St. is 26-10 ATS in their last 36 road games.
• Boise St. is 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• SD St. is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
• SD St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• SD St. is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Boise State Broncos: 71.06
San Diego State Aztecs: 63.05

Key Player Injuries

Boise State
[DE] 11/17/2013 – Tutulupeatau Mataele Ques Saturday (Academics)
[QB] 11/17/2013 – Ryan Finley Ques Saturday (Shoulder)
[WR] 11/17/2013 – Kirby Moore Ques Saturday (Undisclosed)
[LB] 11/17/2013 – Ben Weaver Ques Saturday (Undisclosed)
[QB] 10/20/2013 – Joe Southwick Out Indefinitely (Ankle)
[RB] 10/8/2013 – Aaron Baltazar out for season (Knee)
[S] 10/8/2013 – Ebo Makinde out for season (Pectoral)
[LB] 9/10/2013 – Travis Saxton out for season (Knee)

San Diego State
[LB] 11/21/2013 – Blake Rodgers Ques Saturday (Heart)
[OL] 11/21/2013 – Paul Rodriguez Ques Saturday (Heart)
[DL] 11/6/2013 – Noel Grigsby Out indefinitely (Shoulder)
[DB] 11/6/2013 – Vince Buhagiar Out indefinitely (Neck)
[LB] 10/9/2013 – Billy Vaughn Jr. out for season (Shoulder)
[LB] 11/6/2013 – Dan Kottman Out indefinitely (Foot)

Next Game
New Mexico @ Boise State
San Diego State @ UNLV

Our Selection : The Aztecs were not impressive in their OT win against the Warriors, but that game was in Hawaii where many teams struggle and it was the second straight on the road. They did escape with the victory which marked their 6 win in the last 7 games overall and note that they are a solid 5-1 in conference play.
Statistically these two teams match up well in a lot of categories. For example in rushing offense the Aztecs No. 58 rushing offense against the Broncos No. 59 run defense. On the flip side it is the Bronco’s No. 23 run offense versus the Aztec’s 28th ranked run defense. An interesting stat to consider is that since their Week 2 loss against Ohio State, San Diego has been out-rushed in only one game. That game was a 35-30 win over New Mexico who just happens to have the number 2 ranked rushing offense this season.
The Aztecs only loss since Week 3 was by 7 in overtime to AP No. 15 ranked Fresno State that they outplayed but were turnover prone finishing -2 in turnover margin.
Take the San Diego State Aztecs +7 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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