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BCS Championship: Auburn Vs. Florida State ATS Pick

After 35 college football balls we get to the most important bowl of them all in the BCS National Championship game. The ACC’s Champion team Versus the SEC’s Champion team.

Auburn Tigers vs. Florida State Seminoles

Date: January 6th 2014

Game Time: 8:30 PM ET

Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena California

The Florida State Seminoles come into this game undefeated at 13-0 and with a super impressive bankroll boosting 11-2 against the point spread. The Auburn Tigers finished the season with a 12-1 record and were equally as impressive against the betting line with a matching 11-2 ATS number. The Tigers do have the longest spread covering streak with 9 straight while the Seminoles have covered the line in 6 straight.

Florida State ranked No. 2 in scoring putting up 53.3 points per game while Auburn finished 11th with 40.2 points per game. The Seminoles lead the nation in scoring defense allowing 10.7 points per game. The Tigers defense was not so formidable allowing opponents to score 24 points per game which was good for 38th place in the FBS.

Auburn was the No. 1 rushing team with 335 yards per game and Florida State fished No. 23rd with 207.4 per game. Defensively the Seminoles were a strong 13th ranked against the run giving up 116.5 yards on the ground per game. The Tigers were a mediocre 62nd giving up 163 yards per game.

In the passing game Florida State flourished with 322 yards per game while Auburn kept it primarily on the ground passing for a 107th ranked 169.6 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Seminoles topped the leaderboard with 152 yards per game while the Tigers allowed a worrisome 260.2 which had them in the bottom 20.

Prognosticators know that on paper the level of difficulty of Auburn’s schedule needs to be weighted in these statistics.


Betting Odds

Point Spread: Florida State -8.5
Moneyline: Auburn +265/Florida State -295
Total: 67
Strength of Schedule
Auburn: Ranked 23rd at .576
Florida State: Ranked 57th at .517
Key Betting Trends

  • FS has a 8-0-1 spread record in their last 9 bowl games.
  • FS is 12-3-1 in its last 16 when playing on a neutral field.
  • FS is 4-1 against the line in its last 5 versus the SEC.
  • Aub is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games played on grass.
  • Aub is on a 7-0 spread streak versus teams with a winning record.
  • Aub is 4-1 against the line in its last 5 bowl appearances.

Injury Report

[DB] 01/01/2014 – Ryan White is upgraded to probable Monday vs. Florida State ( Head )
[DT] 10/08/2013 – Jeffrey Whitaker out for season ( Leg )
[DB] 10/24/2013 – Joshua Holsey out for season ( Knee )
[LB] 10/17/2013 – Justin Garrett out indefinitely ( Undisclosed )
[WR] 09/25/2013 – Jaylon Denson out for season ( Knee )
[DB] 08/19/2013 – Demetruce McNeal has been dismissed ( Legal problems )
Florida State
[QB] 11/11/2013 – Jacob Coker out indefinitely ( Knee )
[WR] 11/01/2013 – Isaiah Jones out indefinitely ( Foot )
[RB] 12/20/2013 – Mario Pender “?” Monday vs. Auburn ( Eligibility )
[DB] 10/10/2013 – Tyler Hunter out for season ( Neck )
[OL] 10/04/2013 – Ira Denson out for season ( Shoulder )
[LB] 10/23/2013 – Matthew Thomas out for season ( Shoulder )
[TE] 08/21/2013 – Jeremy Kerr out for season ( Knee )
[TE] 08/21/2013 – Kevin Haplea out for season ( Knee )
[WR] 08/15/2013 – Willie Haulstead out for season ( Academics )
[WR] 08/14/2013 – Jarred Haggins out for season ( Knee )
[OL] 09/16/2013 – Wilson Bell out indefinitely ( Knee )

Against the Point Spread Pick

We thought the line was on the high side. After seeing many of the top SEC teams play their bowl games we think it is on the low side. Of course each team matches up differently to each other, but here is a sharp angle. The Auburn Tigers were all out to beat Texas A&M 45-41 in a game that Johnny Football got banged up and was held out of for an extended period of time. Texas A&M was all out to beat Duke 52-48 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. This is the very same Blue Devil team that was blown out 45-7 in the ACC championship game. The downward spiral continues for the SEC.
Take the Florida State Seminoles -8.5

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