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NCAA Free Total Pick: Baylor Bears versus Wisconsin Badgers

Time: 7:47 PM EST Thursday March 27, 2014, TBS

Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California

In a Sweet 16 match up in the West Region the 6th seed Baylor Bears face the 2nd seed Wisconsin Badgers.

In their last games: Baylor beat Creighton 85-55 and Wisconsin beat Oregon 85-77.

In their win over Creighton Baylor shot a great FG% of 63.8% from the floor, every starter scored in double figures, and the Bears jumped out to a 20 points halftime lead.

In their win over Oregon Wisconsin overcame a 12-point halftime deficit to outscore the Ducks by 20 points in the 2nd half. For the game the Badgers did not play great defense, but shot 48.3% from the floor.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Wisconsin has won 11 of their last 13 games.

Baylor has won 8 of their last 9 games.

In the Creighton win the Bears held the nation’s leading scorer in Doug McDermott (16.7 ppg) to only 15 points.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Wisconsin -3
Total Line: 136.5
Money Line: Bears +135 / Badgers -155

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Baylor Bears: 26-11 SU 15-13-2 ATS
Wisconsin Badgers: 28-7 SU 19-16 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• BAY is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• BAY is 2-0 ATS in their 2 NCAA Tournament games this season.
• BAY has an Under record of 5-4 in their last 9 games.
• WISC is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
• WISC is 2-0 ATS in their 2 NCAA Tournament games this season
• WISC has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Baylor Bears: 88.01
Wisconsin Badgers: 90.97

Key Player Injuries

BEARS
[G] 11/08/2013 – Allerik Freeman out indefinitely ( Hand )

BADGERS
[G] 11/18/2013 – Riley Dearring redshirt ( None )
[G] 12/07/2013 – George Marshall has left team ( Concussion )

Over/Under Total Pick:

Here is the key stat to support our play. The Baylor Bears have allowed a combined 36 first half points in their two NCAA tournament games. While one of the games did go over the total and the other fell just under the high second half scoring was based more on the situation than the Bears defense. Their opponent in both games entered the second half in a large deficit and needed to speed up play to have any shot at the victory. The Badgers will need to slow down the play or risk having this game resemble the Big Ten final game against Michigan State and last week’s second round game versus Oregon. They just can’t expect to come back from a double digit trailing position against Baylor. Remember that this team can play defense holding Florida to 53 and Virginia to 38 earlier in the season and have held 10 of their last 16 opponents to 66 or fewer points. Take the UNDER 136.5.

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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