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NCAA Free ATS Pick: Baylor Bears vs. Creighton Bluejays

Time: 7:45 PM EST Sunday March 23, 2014, truTV

Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas

In a 3rd round match up in the West Region the 5th seed Baylor Bears face the 3rd seed Creighton Bluejays.

In their last games: Baylor beat Nebraska 74-60 and Creighton beat Louisiana-Lafayette 76-66.

In their win over Nebraska Baylor did not shoot the ball well and they did not play great defense, but one of the main reasons they won is that they were 38/48 from the free throw line while the Huskers were only 10/16. In the game the Bears jumped out to a 13-point halftime lead.

In their win over Louisiana-Lafayette Doug McDermott went for 30 points and the Bluejays were solid on both ends of the court shooting over 51% from the floor and holding the Ragin Cajuns to a FG% of 37.9%.

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Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

Creighton is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games.

Creighton’s Doug McDermott led the nation in scoring this season.

Baylor has won 7 of their last 8 games.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Creighton -3
Total Line: 144
Money Line: Bears +135 / Bluejays -155

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Baylor Bears: 25-11 SU 14-14-2 ATS
Creighton Bluejays: 27-7 SU 18-14 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• BAY is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
• BAY is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• BAY has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
• CRE is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
• CRE is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• CRE has an Under record of 20-7-1 in their last 28 non-conference games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Baylor Bears: 86.08
Creighton Bluejays: 88.83

Key Player Injuries

[G] 11/08/2013 – Allerik Freeman out indefinitely ( Hand )

[G] 03/01/2014 – Isaiah Zierden out indefinitely ( Knee )

ATS Pick:

There are many things that decide the outcome of a game, but certain teams have one area that they need to win or be better at than their opponent. For the Bears it is rebounding. Baylor struggles when they can’t win the battle on the boards. The good thing for Baylor is they face Creighton who has been outrebounded in 8 of their last 10 games and they just don’t have the athletes to expect a reversal today. Take the Baylor Bears +3.

Why waste money? Bet this game at and lay -105 instead of -110!

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