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Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts Total Pick

Opening Line: Colts -3.5
Over/Under: 48.5

Time: 1 PM EST Sunday October 5, 2014 on CBS

Even with all the off-the field issues the Ravens have had to deal with they have overcome them and have won 3 straight games. Their only loss came in the opener facing the Bengals, who they trail in the AFC North. However, they can keep pace with Cincy if they keep winning and in their next 3 games they do not face 1 team with a winning record.

The Colts are coming off a blowout win and they have won 2 in a row, which their offense scored at least 41 points. Andrew Luck has played great in the last couple of games and he will be facing a Baltimore pass defense that only ranks 24th in the league. Luck leads a Colts’ passing offense, which is the top ranked unit in the NFL averaging 326 passing yards per game.

These 2 teams have not met since the 2011 season.

In their last games the Colts beat the Tennessee Titans 41-17 and the Ravens beat the Carolina Panthers 38-10.

The Ravens are 2-1-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-2 and the Colts are 3-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 4-0.

The Colts are 1-1 at home and the Ravens are 1-0 on the road.

One of the reasons the Ravens’ offense has been clicking is that Joe Flacco has stayed upright. He was sacked the 2nd most times in the NFL last season, but has not been sacked in the last 3 games. Steve Smith is, by far, his top target, as he has 25 catches for 429 yards and 3 TD while the next leading receiver has only 8 catches for 138 yards. The Colts and their 21st ranked pass defense have to keep Smith from making the big play.

Flacco has been getting help from the run game that ranks 9th in the league with the duo of Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro.

While the Colts have won 2 straight the teams they beat have only combined for 1 win.

Luck has a couple of solid WR’s in Reggie Wayne (23 rec 307 yards) and T.Y. Hilton (22 rec 291 yards) and while the Ravens have been winning their pass D has been struggling and last week in the win over Carolina they gave up 248 passing yards and did not have an INT.

The Ravens stuffed the run last week holding the Panthers to only 67 rushing yards. The Colts had 105 rushing yards last week and while Ahmad Bradshaw has been decent Trent Richardson, the team’s leading rusher, continues to struggle, as he is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

Betting Trends

The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.

The Colts are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall, 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games, and they have an Over record of 6-0 in their last 6 games.

The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these 2 teams.

Free NFL Total Pick

Baltimore is tied for second spot in scoring defense allowing only 15 points per game. We believe that number doesn’t currently reflect their defense. They played 3 of their first 4 games against teams in their own division where the familiarity with their opponent’s offenses lowers the scoring. Allowing 10 points to a struggling Cam Newton and his Panther teammates is certainly not something that would signify a superior defensive effort. What we do think is for real is there offense for some of the reasons why we down rated the defense numbers. They’ve managed nearly 26 point per game against what should as a whole be considered above average defenses.
The Colts have put up 34 points per game this season led by Andrew Luck who has been brilliant this season amassing 1305 yards through the air with 13 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. The lowest point total for Indianapolis came in Week 1 when they scored 24 against Denver followed by 27 versus Philadelphia and back to back games or over 40 against Jacksonville and Tennessee. The problem for the Colts has been the defense that allowed 30.5 points per game in their first two games before holding the offensively challenged Jaguars and Titans to 17 PPG.
This may be the worst defense that the Ravens have faced this season so to expect Baltimore to score less than their average here would not be logical. If the Colts put up 24 points which is a full 10 points lower than their season average this game would go over the 49 on the board. We like those chances.

Take the OVER 49

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