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Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions ATS Prediction

Time: 8:40 PM EST Monday December 16, 2013, ESPN

Huge Monday match up has the Detroit Lions hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a non conference tilt. Both teams are at 7-6 and the loser will have a tough time making the post season.

In their last games the Baltimore Ravens scored a TD with 4 seconds left on the clock to beat the Minnesota Vikings 29-26 in a game that had 7 lead changes. The Detroit Lions lost 34-20 to the Eagles in a game with blizzard-like conditions in Philadelphia as a 3 point underdog.

In their last meeting Ravens hammered the Lions 48-3 in Baltimore on Dec 13/09 as a 2 touchdown favorite. These 2 teams have only met 7 times dating back to September of 1986 with the lions winning 4 times and the Ravens 3.

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The home team has covered the spread in all 4 of their last 4 games between these 2 teams.

The Ravens have gone over the posted total in 5 out of their last 7 road games.

Detroit has a over record of 34-15-3 in their last 52 against teams with a winning record. The Lions have also gone over the posted total in 6 out of their last 7 home games.

This season Detroit is 4-2 at home and Baltimore is 1-5 on the road.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: Detroit -6
Over/Under Total Line: 48.5
Moneyline : Ravens +210 / Lions -250

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Baltimore Ravens: 7-6 SU 6-7 ATS
Detroit Lions: 7-6 SU 6-7 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• BAL is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games when playing a team with a winning home record.
• BAL is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
• BAL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
• DET is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• DET is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• DET is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Baltimore Ravens: 18.68
Detroit Lions: 19.94

Key Player Injuries

RAVENS
[S] 12/10/2013 – Brynden Trawick Ques Monday (Ankle)
[LB] 12/10/2013 – Elvis Dumervil Ques Monday (Leg)
[C] 12/8/2013 – Ryan Jensen Out indefinitely (Foot)
[DE] 9/3/2013 – Kapron Lewis-Moore Out indefinitely (Knee)
[WR] 12/10/2013 – Brandon Stokley Out I-R (Concussion)
[WR] 9/11/2013 – Aaron Mellette Out for the season (Knee)
[LB] 9/3/2013 – D.J. Bryant Out for the season (Knee)
[LB] 8/27/2013 – Adrian Hamilton Out for the season (Wrist)

LIONS
[S] 12/13/2013 – LaAdrian Waddle Prob Monday (Elbow)
[RB] 12/11/2013 – Reggie Bush Prob Monday (Calf)
[CB] 12/13/2013 – Chris Houston Ques Monday (Toe)
[CB] 12/10/2013 – Darius Slay Ques Monday (Knee)
[RB] 11/19/2013 – Montell Owens I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/31/2013 – Ryan Broyles I-R (Achilles)
[DE] 9/23/2013 – Jason Jones I-R (Knee)

Next Game on Deck
New England @ Baltimore
NY Giants @ Detroit

Point Spread Pick: The Lions rank third in the league in passing offense with 297.2 yards per game. We believe that they are better than the stats show. The offense has allowed the least sacks in the league with 15 while making the 5th most pass attempts. They did this without having their No. 2 receiver Nate Burleson for a large chunk of the season. They do face an underrated Ravens pass defense, but the unit hasn’t recorded a sack in their last two. If Detroit’s QB Matthew Stafford has time to throw he can make any defense look bad.
The Lions defense has been solid all season with the run stop unit being their biggest strength. The Eagles ran for 299 yards last week, but we believe the field conditions played a huge part in that total. Expect them to shut the Ravens’ rushing attack down right from the get go. Detroit’s passing defense has improved as the season has gone on holding their opposition to 207 or fewer yards in 4 of their last 6.
Baltimore has been competitive all season with 4 of their 6 losses by 3 or fewer points. In fact they have not lost by more than the posted line since a Week 1 blowout loss to the Bronco’s. However, we feel that the Ravens don’t have the scoring ability to keep up with the Lions. This could get ugly if Flacco isn’t on top of his game.
Take the Detroit Lions -6 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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