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Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals ATS Prediction

Time: 1:00 PM EST Sunday December 29, 2013, Fox

Huge Sunday match up for both teams when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Baltimore Ravens in this AFC North divisional showdown. The Ravens must win to have any chance to make it to the post season and the Bengals with a win and a New England loss would get a first round bye.

In their last games the Baltimore Ravens were embarrassed 41-7 by New England at home as a 1 point underdog. The Cincinnati Bengals dismantled the Minnesota Vikings 42-14 at home as a 7.5 favorite. The Bengals will look to go a perfect 8-0 at Paul Brown Stadium this season and end the Ravens hopes of defending their Super Bowl crown.

In their last meeting, back in Week 10 the Ravens beat the Bengals 20-17 in OT in Baltimore as a 1 point favorite. The Ravens have won 5 out of their last 6 meetings.

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The betting favorite has a record of 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games between these 2 teams.

Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 visits to Cincinnati.

The home team has a record of 3-1-1 in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.

This season Cincinnati is 7-0 at home and Baltimore is 2-5 on the road.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: Cincinnati -6
Over/Under Total Line: 44.5
Moneyline : Ravens +230 / Bengals -270

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Baltimore Ravens: 8-7 SU 7-8 ATS
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-5 SU 9-5-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• BAL is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games when playing a team with a winning home record.
• BAL is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North.
• BAL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• CIN is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• CIN is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
• CIN is 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. AFC North.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Baltimore Ravens: 17.75
Cincinnati Bengals: 24.87

Key Player Injuries

RAVENS
[LB] 12/23/2013 – Albert McClellan Ques Sunday (Neck)
[CB] 12/23/2013 – Asa Jackson Ques Sunday (Thigh)
[C] 12/8/2013 – Ryan Jensen Out indefinitely (Foot)
[DE] 9/3/2013 – Kapron Lewis-Moore Out indefinitely (Knee)
[WR] 12/10/2013 – Brandon Stokley Out I-R (Concussion)
[WR] 9/11/2013 – Aaron Mellette Out for the season (Knee)
[LB] 9/3/2013 – D.J. Bryant Out for the season (Knee)
[LB] 8/27/2013 – Adrian Hamilton Out for the season (Wrist)

BENGALS
[LB] 12/23/2013 – James Harrison Ques Sunday (Concussion)
[DT] 12/23/2013 – Devon Still Ques Sunday (Back)
[CB] 12/22/2013 – Terence Newman Out indefinitely (Knee)
[QB] 9/4/2013 – Zac Robinson Out indefinitely (Ankle)
[P] 12/17/2013 – Kevin Huber I-R (Mouth)
[G] 12/3/2013 – Clint Boling I-R (Knee)
[DT] 11/4/2013 – Geno Atkins I-R (Knee)
[S] 10/30/2013 – Taylor Mays I-R (Shoulder)
[CB] 10/29/2013 – Leon Hall I-R (Achilles)
[DE] 9/18/2013 – Robert Geathers I-R (Elbow)
[LB] 9/4/2013 – Emmanuel Lamur I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 9/4/2013 – Sean Porter I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 9/2/2013 – Brandon Joiner I-R (Shoulder)

Point Spread Pick: The Ravens embarrassed themselves with their effort last week. It is one thing to get beat up by a top level team on the road, but to lose badly to a beat up mediocre Patriot team on your own home field is a completely different story. We just can’t see them turning it around after that dismal effort. Yes this is the NFL and you can never overplay the result from the previous week, but let’s look at their recent games. Week 16 we covered above. The Week 15 road victory (18-16 over the Lions) doesn’t look the same now after the Lions lost to the Giants on home field. The Week 14 win you have to give them a pat on the back for not giving up, but that was a loss on everything but the scoreboard. So now they travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals who are undefeated at home this season. The 6-point spread shouldn’t be a deterrent for Cincinnati backers with the Bengals winning their last 4 home games by 40 versus the Jets, 21 versus the Browns, 14 versus the Colts and by 28 last week against the Vikings.
Cincinnati does have a shot to get a first round bye if they can win this game and New England loses their game. An important thing to consider is that they host the Ravens in an early game while the Patriots host the Bills at 4:15, so the ongoing score of the Bills vs. Pats game will not have an effect on Cincinnati’s game. In other words, you never know what the coaching staff is going to do, but we feel that there is enough on the line for the Bengals to put out there best effort. So we’re going to recommend a small play on Cincinnati at this point.
Take the Cincinnati Bengals -6 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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