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Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers Total Prediction

Time: 8:40 PM EST Monday December 23, 2013, ESPN

The San Francisco 49ers host the Atlanta Falcons in a NFC conference match-up in the last game before Christmas.

In their last game the Atlanta Falcons were very lucky to get a win at home 27-26 over the Washington Redskins. Washington was down 7 late in the 4th and scored a TD with 18 seconds left on the clock. Instead of kicking the extra point to send the game into OT the Redskins went for the win losing on Kirk Cousins incomplete pass on the 2 point conversion attempt.

Last Sunday the San Francisco 49ers had little trouble beating up on the Buccaneers 33-14 in Tampa Bay as a 4.5 point favorite.

In their last meeting the 49ers beat the Falcons 28-24 in last year’s NFC championship game in Atlanta as a 3.5 point favorite. Atlanta has won 4 out of their 5 and 6 out of their last 10 dating back to January 2000.


The Underdog has covered the spread in 9 of their last 13 meetings.

The 49ers have record of 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings.

Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 visits to San Francisco.

This season San Francisco is 5-2 at home and Atlanta is 1-6 on the road.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: San Francisco -13
Over/Under Total Line: 45

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Atlanta Falcons: 4-10 SU 5-9 ATS
San Francisco 49ers: 10-4 SU 10-4 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• ATL is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 after gaining less than 250 total yards in previous game.
• ATL is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• ATL is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
• SF is 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• SF is 22-5 ATS in their last 27 Monday games.
• SF is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Atlanta Falcons: 15.21
San Francisco 49ers: 30.08

Key Player Injuries

[S] 12/18/2013 – Thomas Decoud Ques Monday (Concussion)
[RB] 12/18/2013 – Antone Smith Ques Monday (Knee)
[QB] 12/11/2013 – Sean Renfree I-R (Shoulder)
[T] 11/13/2013 – Sam Baker I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/10/2013 – Julio Jones I-R (Foot)
[T] 10/7/2013 – Mike Johnson I-R (Leg)
[DE] 9/16/2013 – Kroy Biermann I-R (Leg)
[FB] 9/16/2013 – Bradie Ewing I-R (Shoulder)

[G] 12/18/2013 – Mike Iupati Ques Monday (Knee)
[TE] 12/18/2013 – Vance McDonald Monday (Ankle)
[WR] 12/18/2013 – Jonathan Baldwin Monday (Shoulder)
[FB] 12/18/2013 – Bruce Miller Out indefinitely (Arm)
[WR] 12/15/2013 – Quinton Patton Out indefinitely (Foot)
[DT] 12/12/2013 – Cornellius Carradine I-R (Knee)
[RB] 12/7/2013 – Marcus Lattimore I-R (Knee)
[CB] 10/7/2013 – Chris Culliver I-R (Knee)
[NT] 10/7/2013 – Ian Williams I-R (Ankle)

Next Game on Deck
Carolina @ Atlanta
San Francisco @ Arizona

Over/Under Pick: The Atlanta Falcons escaped with a 27-26 home win over the Washington Redskins last week. The win was far from impressive. The Falcons finished the game with a plus 5 turnover margin a number that should see the benefactor’s margin of victory reach at the minimum double digits. They allowed 373 yards in the air to the Redskins who started backup QB Kirk Cousins!
The 49ers’ offense is finally healthy with the exception of FB Bruce Miller who was lost for the season in Week 15. The receiving corps though is the healthiest they’ve been all season and we believe this will be a break out game for the passing offense which has been more pop gun than anything else in 2013.
San Francisco may have little to play for if New Orleans and Arizona win their games on Sunday. We do believe that they’ll still want to air it out for at least a half either way. So, we’re going to pass on the side play for now and go with a total play.
Take the OVER 45 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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