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Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills – Over/Under Prediction

Time: 4:05 PM EST Sunday December 1, 2013, Fox

The Buffalo Bills host the Atlanta Falcons in non conference match-up at the Skydome in Toronto Canada.

In their last games Atlanta lost a close defensive battle 17-13 with their divisional rival New Orleans Saints on the road as a 8 point underdog. Before their bye week the Buffalo Bills pounded their divisional rival New York Jets 37-14 at home as a 2 point underdog.

In their last meeting the Falcons beat Buffalo 31-3 on Dec 27/09 in Atlanta as a 7.5 point favorite. These 2 teams have only faced each other 6 times since 1989 with the Falcons winning the last 3 and 4 out of 6.

The Bills have gone Under the posted total in 11 of their last 14 games following a bye week. Buffalo also has Under record of 12-4 in their last 16 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Atlanta has gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and also has a Under record of 7-2 in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

This season Buffalo is 3-3 at home and Atlanta is 0-5 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Buffalo -3.5
Over/Under Total Line: 46.5
Moneyline: Falcons +142 / Bills -162

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Atlanta Falcons: 2-9 SU 3-8 ATS
Buffalo Bills: 4-7 SU 6-5 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• ATL is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• ATL is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall..
• ATL is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• BUF is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• BUF is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• BUF is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a ATS win.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Atlanta Falcons: 14.71
Buffalo Bills: 16.54

Key Player Injuries

Atlanta
[DE] 11/25/2013 – Malliciah Goodman Ques Thursday (Calf)
[QB] 11/25/2013 – Dominique Davis Doub Thursday (Knee)
[T] 11/13/2013 – Sam Baker I-R (Knee)
[WR] 10/10/2013 – Julio Jones I-R (Foot)
[T] 10/7/2013 – Mike Johnson I-R (Leg)
[DE] 9/16/2013 – Kroy Biermann I-R (Leg)
[FB] 9/16/2013 – Bradie Ewing I-R (Shoulder)
[QB] 9/3/2013 – Sean Renfree I-R (Undisclosed)

Buffalo
[WR] 11/25/2013 – Stevie Johnson Prob Sunday (Groin)
[WR] 11/25/2013 – Robert Woods Ques Sunday (Knee)
[DB] 10/20/2013 – Jonathan Meeks Elig Week 15 (Ankle)
[K] 10/7/2013 – Dustin Hopkins I-R (Groin)
[DT] 9/29/2013 – Alex Carrington I-R (Quadricep)

Next Game on Deck
Atlanta @ Green Bay
Buffalo @ Tampa Bay

Over/Under Pick : The Falcons have scored 13 or fewer points in 4 out of their last 5 games. They aren’t likely to improve on those totals this week. Buffalo has allowed 24.8 points per game, but that total is inflated by turnovers by an assortment of fill in QB’s. They now have E.J. Manuel back behind center and while a rookie he is improving each week. He was a solid 20 of 28 last week with no INTs against the strong front 7 of the Jets and on paper faces much easier this week. Here is something to ponder if you think that the Bills defense is mediocre. Buffalo has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 300 or fewer yards per game. The Bills did score 37 last week, but have scored 24 or fewer points in the other 10.
Buffalo’s defense is tied for 1st in the league with Seattle in INTs with 16, so we do have to consider some risk of points being scored by the defense. However, we believe we have enough numbers on our side to support a play on the UNDER.
Take the UNDER 46.5 at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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