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Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Total Pick

Time: 4:10 PM EST Sunday August 3, 2014 ESPN

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

The San Diego Padres host the Atlanta Braves in a National League match up.

In their last games: The Padres beat the Braves 3-2 in Game 2 of this 3-game series.

San Diego’s Will Venable hit a game-winning single in the bottom of the 12thinning to lift the Padres to a 3-2 win over the Braves.

Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

The Pirates are 2-5 in Ross’ last 7 starts vs. against a team with a winning record.

The Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the Padres.

Pitching Match Up
Atlanta Braves: Aaron Harang (9-6, 3.43 ERA)
San Diego Padres: Tyson Ross (10-10, 2.60 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Braves +120 / Padres -130
Run Line: San Diego -1.5 +175
Total Line: 6.5 Over -115

Straight up, Over/Under and Runline Records
Atlanta Braves 58-53 SU / O/U 44-61 / Run Line W/L 54-57
San Diego Padres 50-60SU / O/U 37-68 / Run Line W/L 50-60

Key Betting Trends
• ATL is 0-5 in their last 5 road games.
• ATL is 0-5 in their last 5 overall.
• ATL is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
• SD is 6-1 in their last 7 home games.
• SD is 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
• SD has an over record of 7-3-1 in their last 11 overall.

Key Player Injuries

Brandon BeachyRight elbow surgery – out for season on 60-day DL(3/21)
Gavin Floyd Fractured right elbow on 60-day DL(6/20)
Cory GearrinRight elbow sprain on 60-day DL(3/26)
Kris Medlen Right elbow surgery – out for season on 60-day DL(3/21)
Shae Simmons Strained right shoulder on 15-day DL(7/27)
Jonny VentersRecovery from left elbow surgery on 60-day DL(3/21)

Andrew Cashner Right shoulder soreness on 15-day DL(6/21)
Robbie Erlin Left elbow soreness on 60-day DL(5/18)
Josh Johnson Strained flexor, right forearm on 60-day DL(3/21)
Casey Kelly Recovery from right elbow surgery on 60-day DL(3/21)
Cory Luebke Left elbow surgery – out for season on 60-day DL(3/7)
Troy Patton Left shoulder soreness on 60-day DL(6/14)
Carlos Quenti Left knee soreness on 15-day DL(7/27)
Joe Wieland Recvery from right elbow surgery on 60-day DL(3/21)

Total Pick:

Harang wasn’t at his best in his last start giving up 4 runs over 6 frames against the Dodgers in L.A., but he was ultra-sharp in his previous 6. He has decent numbers away from home this season and while he hasn’t seen the Padres since 2013 his last against them was a stellar complete game shutout. Tyson Ross is only 10-10 on the season but an argument could be made that he belongs in the conversation when talking about the best young arms in baseball. While he hasn’t received the run support to boost his won/loss record at home his ERA is a miniscule 1.86! The Braves haven’t been scoring with 4 straight games of 2 or less runs scored and I don’t expect them to turn that around today. San Diego scored 20 runs in Ross’ last 3 starts, but 9 in his previous 7 and has scored 3 or less in 9 of his last 11. Take Under 6.5 +105.

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