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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Free MLB Total Pick

Time: 7:10 PM EST Wednesday August 27, 2014 WPIX

Location: Citi Field, New York, New York

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves in a National League East match up.

In their last games: In Game 1 of this 3-game series yesterday the Mets beat the Braves 3-2.

New York’s Juan Lagares’ 2-run HR in the 4th inning was the difference maker in the 3-2 win over the Braves yesterday.

These 2 teams have split the 14 games they have faced each other this season.

Here are some additional handicapping angles to ponder:

The Braves are 9-4 in Julio Teheran’s last 13 starts as a road favorite.

The Mets are 4-0 in Zack Wheeler’s last 4 home starts.

The Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Mets in New York.

In the last 6 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Under 5 times.

Pitching Match Up

Atlanta: Julio Teheran (12-9, 2.96 ERA)
New York: Zack Wheeler (9-8, 3.48 ERA)

Betting Odds

Money Line: Braves -125 / Mets +115
Run Line: Braves -1.5 +140
Total Line: Under 6.5 +100

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records

Atlanta Braves: 68-64 SU / O/U 53-69 / Run Line W/L 65-67
New York Mets: 62-70 SU / O/U 59-59 / Run Line W/L 76-56
Key Betting Trends
• ATL is 4-12 in their last 16 road games.
• ATL is 2-6 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
• ATL has an Under record of 4-1-1 in their last 6 games.
• NY is 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
• NY is 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
• NY has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Key Player Injuries

BRAVES

Brandon Beachy Right elbow surgery – out for season on 60-day DL(3/21)
Gavin Floyd Fractured right elbow on 60-day DL(6/20)
Cory Gearrin Right elbow sprain on 60-day DL(3/26)
Kris Medlen Right elbow surgery – out for season on 60-day DL(3/21)
Shae Simmons Strained right shoulder on 15-day DL(7/27)
Jonny Venters Recovery from left elbow surgery on 60-day DL(3/21)

METS

Matt Harvey Recovery from right elbow surgery on 60-day DL(3/30)
Daisuke Matsuzaka Right elbow inflammation on 15-day DL(7/25)
Bobby Parnell Torn MCL, right elbow on 60-day DL(4/1)

Total Pick:

This trend in this matchup is to the under with 5 of the last 6 falling under the posted total line and that’s the position I’m going to take today. Braves’ pitcher Julio Teheran got beat up in his last start against the Mets, but he was dominating in his other 4 career starts vs. New York allowing 4 runs over 25 innings. Mets’ starter Zack Wheeler has been very consistent in his last 10 starts allowing 15 runs and holding the opposition to 2 or fewer runs in 9 of the games. It’s a low number but we do get a strong under umpire in Mike Muchlinski behind home plate to balance it out.

Take the under 6.5 +100

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