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Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Over Under Prediction

Time: 3:00 PM EST Saturday December 14, 2013, ABC

The Navy Midshipmen host the Army Black Knights in a Independents I-A divisional match-up.

In their last games Army lost a shootout to the Rainbow Warriors 49-42 in Hawaii as a 5.5 point underdog. The Navy Midshipmen needed triple OT to beat the San Jose Spartans 58-52 on the road as a small 1 point dog. In a game that neither teams defense showed up, there was just shy of 1100 yards of total yards combined between the 2 teams.

In their last meeting Army lost a close defensive battle 17-13 to the Midshipmen last Dec 8/12 at home as a 6.5 point underdog. The Navy Midshipmen have won the last 10 in a row against their divisional rivals.

Both of these teams are coming of their bye week so both have had 2 weeks to prepare for this huge military grudge match.

These 2 teams have gone Under the posted total in all 4 of the last 4 times they have faced off at Lincoln Financial Field.

The road team has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings.

This season Navy is 5-0 at home and Army is 1-5 on the road.

Betting Odds at 5Dimes
Point Spread: Navy -13
Over/Under Total Line: 54
Moneyline: Black Knights +400 / Midshipmen -500

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Army Black Knights: 3-8 SU 4-7 ATS
Navy Midshipmen: 7-4 SU 8-3 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• ARMY is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• ARMY is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
• ARMY is 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a bye week.
• NAVY is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• NAVY is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
• NAVY is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
Army Black Knights: 52.91
Navy Midshipmen: 71.42

Key Player Injuries

Black Knights
[FB] 12/10/2013 – Hayden Tippett Ques Saturday (Ankle)
[DL] 12/10/2013 – Holt Zalneraitis Ques Saturday (Undisclosed)
[DB] 12/10/2013 – Marques Avery Ques Saturday (Undisclosed)

Midshipmen
[C] 12/10/2013 – Tanner Fleming Ques Saturday (Concussion)
[FB] 12/10/2013 – Chris Swain Ques Saturday (Hamstring)
[S] 11/20/2013 – Chris Ferguson Out for the season (Concussion)
[T] 10/4/2013 – Graham Vickers Out for the season (Concussion)

Over/Under Selection : On paper this looks like a mismatch and we may be kicking ourselves after the final whistle. That being said we think that there is more value in the total. These two programs have played under the posted total line in 7 straight games. That’s a strong trend and with Army’s infantry not a full strength we’re not going to predict a different over/under result this season. Take Under 54 points at 5Dimes and get reduced juice on every play.

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