Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks Betting Pick
- Updated: September 30, 2014
Opening Line: Oregon -23
Time: 10:30 PM EST Thursday October 2, 2014 on ESPN / Watch ESPN
Arizona Wildcats (4-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (4-0)
Oregon narrowly avoided an upset in their last game in their Pac 12 opener and is big betting favorites at home facing an Arizona squad they lost to last season. While Arizona is 4-0 their defense only ranks 77th in the nation giving up an average of 27.3 ppg and that is not good facing a Ducks’ team that ranks 4th in the nation in ppg.
Marcus Mariota is an early Heisman favorite and in last season’s loss he was picked off twice by the Wildcats in the Oregon loss. He has not been picked off this season, but he needs better play from his offensive line this week, as that unit gave up 7 sacks in their last game facing Washington State.
In their last games Oregon beat Washington State 38-31 and Arizona beat California 49-45.
Arizona is 1-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-2 and Oregon is 1-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-2.
On the season Oregon is 3-0 at home and Arizona is 1-0 on the road.
Mariota has a solid WR led by big play WR Devon Adams, who is averaging over 21 yards per catch on the season and already has 5 TD, It is key that Arizona gets to the Oregon QB, they rank 51st in the nation with 9 sacks, as their pass defense has been torched this season ranking 113th in the nation giving up over 295 passing yards per game.
For a change the Oregon pass attack is the strength of the offense, but the Ducks can still run the ball with the duo of Royce Freeman (261 yards 5 TD) and QB Mariota (214 yards 3 TD). They will be facing an Arizona run D that gave up 193 rushing yards in the win over Cal.
With the issues the Wildcats have on D and the Oregon offense Arizona may have to light up the scoreboard to pull off the upset. That starts with QB Anu Solomon, who passed for 520 yards with 5 TD and 2 INT in the Cal game. WR Cayleb Jones and RB Austin Hill are each averaging over 16 yards per catch on the season.
On the young season Oregon ranks 48th in the nation defending the run and only 199th defending the pass, which is a big concern.
Oregon has a 28-game winning streak at home facing unranked opponents.
Arizona is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Oregon is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and they have an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these 2 teams.
Point Spread Pick
Sure the 23.5 points is a massive spread to cover, but with the rested and revenge minded Ducks this is a number I believe that they can beat. The Arizona defense has not shown any signs that it will be able to contain the Oregon offense. Giving up 45 points and 573 yards to California in their last game certainly doesn’t inspire any confidence. The extra week to prepare and the Bears’ blueprint to exploit this defense fresh in their minds is all I need to take a small position on this game.
Take the Oregon Ducks -23.5