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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Pick

Opening Line: Alabama -6.5
Over/Under: 51

Time: 3:30 PM EST Saturday October 4, 2014 on CBS

No. 3 Alabama (4-0) vs. No. 11 Ole Miss (4-0)

While Alabama still has a great defense, which ranks 9th in the nation, their offense is also getting it done ranking in the top 20 in both passing and rushing yards per game. They will be facing an Ole Miss defense that is the top-ranked unit in the SEC and 3rd best in the nation.

Alabama has 10 straight wins against Ole Miss.

Ole Miss is undefeated and has 1-0 SEC record, but this game may show if they are for real. They have played a weaker schedule than Alabama, but they did have an impressive win over Boise State in their season opener.

In their last games Ole Miss beat Memphis 24-3 and Alabama beat Florida 42-21.

Alabama is 1-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-1 and Ole Miss is 3-0-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 1-3.

This season Ole Miss is 3-0 at home and this will be Alabama’s first away game of the season.

QB Bo Wallace leads Ole Miss and the Rebels have the nation’s 13th ranked passing offense. He has a great WR duo in Laquon Treadwell and Cody Core, who are both at least 6’2” and have combined for 37 catches for 584 yards and 7 TD. On top of that each is averaging over 15 yards per catch. One main concern for Ole Miss is that Wallace has 6 INT this season and had 2 in the win over Memphis last week. For the Rebels to pull off the upset he has to avoid the turnover and his line has to protect him in the pocket.

The Rebels do not have a great rushing offense, but have a couple of RB’s that have over 150 yards on the season. They have to help Wallace out and keep Alabama from only playing the pass.

Alabama has a more balanced offensive attack and QB Blake Sims has been solid with 1,091 passing yards with 8 TD and he only has 2 INT. It helps that he has, arguably, the best WR in the nation in Amari Cooper, who has 5 TD and has over 130 receiving yards in every game this season including going for 201 in the win over Florida.

The Ole Miss D will also have their hands full dealing with the Bama rushing attack led by the 3-headed monster of T.J. Yeldon, Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake.

Betting Trends

Alabama is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Ole Miss is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, and they have an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 games.

The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games between these 2 SEC rivals.

Point Spread Pick

At this point in the season I’m looking for quality teams to have at the least one statement game. Both teams did exactly that in their last games with Alabama taking it to Florida 42-21 and Ole Miss completely shutting down Memphis in a 24-3 win. Of the two games I preferred the Rebels effort that held a better than many give credit to Memphis team to a total of 104 yards! The Tide exploded for 645 yards and their defense was strong allowing just 200 yards to the Gators, but this game was anyone’s late into the third quarter tied at 21-21 before Alabama pulled away. Multiple mistakes and penalties kept the Gators in the game which would suggest that the Rebels are more disciplined and focused at this stage of the season. Ole Miss has outscored their opponents 62-12 in the first half and 94-22 in the second half showing their focus is strong from the opening kickoff until the final whistle. Yards per point differential show a big edge for the Rebels with Ole Miss holding a massive 12.6 yards per point differential over Alabama which even with an adjustment of strength of schedule comes in just under double digits.

Take the Mississippi Rebels +7‏

This game is on the board at some of the square books at 7 which is what I suggest you play this game at Bovada

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