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NFL Wildcard: San Diego at Cincinnati Total Pick

Time: 1:05 PM EST Sunday January 5, 2014, Fox

The Cincinnati Bengals went a perfect 8-0 at Paul Brown Stadium this this season and will try to keep that streak going when they host the San Diego Chargers in the second AFC Wildcard match-up this weekend.

In their last games the Cincinnati beat the Baltimore Ravens 34-17 at home as a 6.5 point favorite. The San Diego Chargers just squeaked by the Kansas City Chief 27-24 in OT at home as a 15 point favorite. The Chiefs rested most of their starters but still gave the Chargers all they could handle. Kansas City had a chance to end the Chargers season but Ryan Succop just missed the right upright sending the game into extra time.

In their last meeting, back in Week 13 the Bengals beat the Chargers 17-10 in San Diego as a 2.5 point favorite. Cincinnati have won their last 3 meetings and 6 out of their last 10.


These two teams have a Over record of 7-2-2 in their last meetings and also they’ve gone over the posted total in all 4 of their last 4 games played in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Chargers.

The road team has a has covered the spread in 6 out of the last 7 games between these 2 teams.

This season Cincinnati is 8-0 at home and the San Diego Chargers are 2-5 on the road.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: Cincinnati -7
Over/Under Total Line: 47
Moneyline : Chargers +245 / Bengals -290

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
San Diego Chargers: 8-7 SU 7-8 ATS
Cincinnati Bengals: 11-5 SU 10-5-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends

• SD is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• SD is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
• SD is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
• CIN is 11-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• CIN is 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• CIN is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wildcard games.

Sagarin Power Rankings
San Diego Chargers: 23.18
Cincinnati Bengals: 25.17

Key Player Injuries

[LB] 12/20/2013 – Thomas Keiser Prob Sunday (Disciplinary)
[S] 12/20/2013 – Brandon Taylor Out for the season (Knee)
[TE] 12/23/2013 – John Phillips I-R (Knee)
[DB] 12/18/2013 – Johnny Patrick I-R (Ankle)
[LB] 11/14/2013 – Larry English I-R (Bicep)
[T] 10/9/2013 – Mike Harris I-R (Ankle)
[WR] 10/1/2013 – Malcom Floyd I-R (Neck)
[LB] 10/1/2013 – Dwight Freeney I-R (Quadricep)
[WR] 9/2/2013 – Danario Alexander I-R (Knee)
[CB] 9/2/2013 – Steve Williams I-R (Pectoral)
[LB] 9/2/2013 – Jonas Mouton I-R (Knee)

[TE] 12/30/2013 – Jermaine Gresham Ques Sunday (Hamstring)
[TE] 12/30/2013 – Tyler Eifert Ques Sunday (Shoulder)
[CB] 12/22/2013 – Terence Newman Out indefinitely (Knee)
[QB] 9/4/2013 – Zac Robinson Out indefinitely (Ankle)
[DT] 12/30/2013 – Devon Still I-R (Back)
[TE] 12/30/2013 – Alex Smith I-R (Wrist)
[P] 12/17/2013 – Kevin Huber I-R (Mouth)
[G] 12/3/2013 – Clint Boling I-R (Knee)
[DT] 11/4/2013 – Geno Atkins I-R (Knee)
[S] 10/30/2013 – Taylor Mays I-R (Shoulder)
[CB] 10/29/2013 – Leon Hall I-R (Achilles)
[DE] 9/18/2013 – Robert Geathers I-R (Elbow)
[LB] 9/4/2013 – Emmanuel Lamur I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 9/4/2013 – Sean Porter I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 9/2/2013 – Brandon Joiner I-R (Shoulder)

Over/Under Betting Pick

The Chargers won their last 4 to sneak into the playoffs getting a nice win over the Broncos along the way. The Chargers were a mediocre 4-4 SU and 4-3-1 ATS on the road this season, but did finish off the season with the aforementioned road win over Denver proceeded by a win in Kansas City. They did lose to the Bengals in San Diego before the 4-game streak and will need to improve their running game that managed only 91 yards on 24 carries in the 17-10 loss. The Chargers have been held to fewer than 100 yards in 4 games this season. All four games resulted in losses. San Diego was without starting LT King Dunlap in the previous game against Cincinnati, so having him back should help the cause. On the other side of the ball the Chargers’ defense was ripped for 164 yards on the ground. That is a cause for concern. The Bengals passing game is far more effective at home and if the running game continues its success it will be a long day for the Bolts’ defense.
The lines maker has the total on this game at 47 and our first instinct was to look at betting the under. That thought disappeared quickly as we dug into the numbers. Yes their first game was low scoring, but the numbers support a high scoring rematch. The Bengals have scored 40 or more points in 4 of their last 5 home games. They put up only 34 last week, but they sat out both of their receiving TE’s to nurse some minor injuries. Both are expected back this week. The Chargers have scored 26 or greater points in 5 of their last 6 including 41 in Kansas City and 27 in Denver.
Take the OVER 47 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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