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AFC Wildcard Betting: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

Time: 4:35 PM EST January 4, 2014, FOX

The Indianapolis Colts host the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the two AFC Wildcard match-ups this weekend.

In their last games the Indianapolis Colts hammered the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-10 at home as a 11.5 point favorite.

The Kansas City Chiefs rested most of their starters since they had nothing to play for. The Chiefs still gave the Chargers all they could handle but did lose in the end 27-24 in overtime on the road as a 15 point underdog.

In their last meeting just 2 weeks ago in Week 16 the Colts beat the Kansas City Chiefs 23-7 on the road as a 7.5 point underdog. The Colts have won 8 out of the last 10 times these 2 teams have met dating back to September 2000.


These two teams have gone under the posted total in 5 of their last 6 meetings and also have a under record of 4-1 in the last 5 games in Indianapolis.

The road team is 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 meetings.

The Colts are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 times they’ve faced of against the Chiefs.

This season Indianapolis is 6-2 at home and the Kansas City Chiefs are 6-2 on the road.

Betting Odds at
Point Spread: Indianapolis -2.5
Over/Under Total Line: 46.5
Moneyline: Chiefs +112 / Colts -132

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records
Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 SU 9-7 ATS
Indianapolis Colts: 11-5 SU 10-6 ATS

Key Betting Trends
• KC is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
• KC is 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• KC is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• IND is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• IND is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
• IND is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Kansas City Chiefs: 24.69
Indianapolis Colts: 25.59

Key Player Injuries


[WR] 12/31/2013 – Dwayne Bowe Prob Saturday (Concussion)
[T] 12/30/2013 – Branden Albert Ques Saturday (Knee)
[LB] 12/30/2013 – Justin Houston Ques Saturday (Elbow)
[LB] 12/31/2013 – James-Michael Johnson I-R (Ankle)
[DB] 12/1/2013 – Sanders Commings I-R (Shoulder)
[LB] 10/13/2013 – Travis Kelce I-R (Knee)


[DT] 12/30/2013 – Ricky Jean-Francois Ques Saturday (Foot)
[LB] 12/30/2013 – Daniel Adongo Ques Saturday (Hamstring)
[S] 12/30/2013 – Sergio Brown Ques Saturday (Groin)
[G] 12/30/2013 – Joe Reitz Ques Saturday (Concussion)
[DE] 12/30/2013 – Cory Redding Ques Saturday (Shoulder)
[G] 12/30/2013 – Mike McGlynn Ques Saturday (Elbow)
[CB] 12/30/2013 – Vontae Davis Ques Saturday (Groin)
[DT] 12/24/2013 – Montori Hughes Out for the season (Knee)
[LB] 12/18/2013 – Pat Angerer I-R (Knee)
[RB] 12/10/2013 – Chris Rainey I-R (Leg)
[S] 11/27/2013 – Delano Howell I-R (Foot)
[WR] 10/22/2013 – Reggie Wayne I-R (Knee)
[RB] 10/8/2013 – Ahmad Bradshaw I-R (Neck)
[TE] 10/7/2013 – Dwayne Allen I-R (Hip)
[G] 9/17/2013 – Donald Thomas I-R (Quadricep)
[RB] 9/13/2013 – Vick Ballard I-R (Knee)
[LB] 9/1/2013 – Justin Hickman I-R (Foot)
[LB] 8/27/2013 – Lawrence Sidbury I-R (Shoulder)

Point Spread Betting Pick

Perception is a weird thing. The Colts have won 4 of their last 5 games, but we just didn’t feel like they were playing well and definitely would not be a team to be reckoned with in the playoffs. Then we started going over in depth every game that they’ve played this season. You know what? They just aren’t that bad. Yes, luck and scheduling has been their best friend in many of their quality wins, but they did beat San Francisco and Kansas City on the road and they did beat Seattle and Denver at home. That resume would be tough for any team to match in the league. There are some game results that were worrisome though. Blowout losses to St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati point out that teams with a strong pass rush and solid secondary play can cause this offense fits and while some of you may think that describes Kansas City to a “T”, we do not.
The Chiefs starters took last week off and some may say that they took their Week 16 game off against the Colts as well. That being said, their record may be a bit skewed at 2-5 in their last 7 games. But, something smells here. Since a victory over the Bills that they had no right to win, the Chiefs then lost 3 in a row which included home and home losses to the Broncos sandwiching a home loss to the Chargers. They responded with wins over the Redskins who finished the season on an 8-game losing streak and the Raiders who finished the season on a 6-game losing streak. Kansas City then closed out the season with the aforementioned games against Indianapolis and San Diego. The Chiefs relied on a great pass rush to protect a secondary that just isn’t that good right now. Kansas City did get 3 sacks last week but that wasn’t their starters. In the last 7 games that the starters have played the Chiefs have 6 games that they recorded 1 or fewer sacks! Over that same 7-game stretch, the defense allowed their opponents to 427 yards or greater in 5 of those games. Take the Indianapolis Colts -2.5 at and get reduced juice on every play.

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