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2014 Super Bowl Gambling: Point Spread Pick

Time: 6:30 PM EST Sunday Febuary 2, 2014, FOX

Location: MetLife Stadium(Turf) in East Rutherford, New Jersey

The 48th Super Bowl kicks off on February 2nd with the defensive minded Seattle Seahawks taking on the offensively gifted Denver Broncos. The linesmakers at 5Dimes opened the betting on this game with Seattle as a small 1-point favorite before Denver bettors came in betting with both fists to drive the point spread up to Denver -2.5 points. The total line opened at 47.5 and has held steady there at most sports betting shops.

The Seahawks got here by holding off the 49ers late drive to prevail 23-17 in the NFC title game. The Broncos earned their spot in the big game by thoroughly outplaying the Patriots in a misleading 26-16 AFC Championship win.

These two teams haven’t played since 2010, but for the record Denver is 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 in this series. On the season the Seahawks were 6-2 overall both SU and ATS. The Broncos were also 6-2 straight up as a visitor but only 5-3 against the line. So both teams have fared well away from home, but the similarities end there.

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Here are some stats to consider.

These teams couldn’t be more opposite with the Broncos getting it done with offense and the Seahawks doing it with defense. Denver led the league in the regular season in scoring offense with 37.9 points per game, passing with 340.3 yards per game and offensive yardage with 457.3 per game. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos were solid against the run finishing No. 7 in yards per game, but were not as strong versus the pass finishing 27th giving up 254.4 through the air.

Seattle led the NFL in scoring defense allowing 14.4 points per game, passing yards allowed at 172 per game and total yards allowed with a low 273.6 per game. Offensively they were up and down scoring an 8th ranked 26.1 points per game, but managing only 341.1 yards per game.

Injury wise both teams are relatively healthy although the Broncos are a little thin on DB’s. The key injury to watch is the status of star WR Percy Harvin who missed the NFC title game with concussion issues. On paper the addition of Harvin to the Seahawks’ passing attack would be a big factor in this game.

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Denver -2.5
Money Line: Seahawks +110 / Broncos -130
Total Line: 47.5

Straight up and Against the Point Spread Records

Seattle Seahawks: 15-3 SU / 12-6 ATS
Denver Broncos: 15-3 SU / 11-6-1 ATS

Key Betting Trends

  • SEA is 13-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • SEA is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
  • SEA has gone UNDER the total in 7 of their last 7 games.
  • SEA is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win./li>
  • DEN is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 250+ yards passing in previous game.
  • DEN is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
  • DEN is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 24 of Denver’s last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Sagarin Power Rankings

Seattle Seahawks: 33.06
Denver Broncos: 30.62

Key Player Injuries

SEAHAWKS

[WR] 1/20/2014 – Percy Harvin Prob Sunday (Concussion)
[DT] 1/19/2014 – Jordan Hill Ques Sunday (Groin)
[CB] 12/13/2013 – Tharold Simon Out for the season (Foot)
[CB] 12/9/2013 – K.J. Wright Out indefinitely (Foot)
[CB] 11/26/2013 – Brandon Browner Out indefinitely (Suspension)
[DE] 9/5/2013 – Greg Scruggs Out indefinitely (Knee)
[S ] 12/12/2013 – Jeron Johnson I-R (Hamstring)
[WR] 10/30/2013 – Sidney Rice I-R (Knee)
[FB] 10/22/2013 – Spencer Ware I-R (Ankle)
[DT] 8/27/2013 – Jesse Williams I-R (Knee)

BRONCOS
[RB] 1/20/2013 – Knowshon Moreno Prob Sunday (Ribs)
[CB] 1/20/2013 – Tony Carter Prob Sunday (Arm)
[TE] 1/19/2013 – Joel Dreessen Ques Sunday (Knee)
[CB] 1/13/2014 – Chris Harris Out for the season (Knee)
[LB] 12/23/2013 – Von Miller Out for the season (Knee)
[S] 1/19/2014 – Rahim Moore I-R (Leg)
[DE] 1/15/2014 – Derek Wolfe I-R (Illness)
[DT] 11/26/2013 – Kevin Vickerson I-R (Hip)
[LB] 10/27/2013 – Stewart Bailey I-R (Wrist)
[C] 10/7/2013 – Dan Koppen I-R (Leg)
[T] 9/29/2013 – Ryan Clady I-R (Foot)

Point Spread Pick:

It may have looked nice on Monday morning looking over the box score and seeing the 507 yards Denver racked up against New England in a “not as close as it appeared”26-16 win. But before you award the Broncos the 2014 Super Bowl you may want to consider the facts. The Pats finished 27th in the league in defense not because they were outcoached or lack of talent, but because they lost starter after to starter to injury with the final nails put in the coffin with the loss of LB Brandon Spikes for the playoffs and then top cover corner Aquib Talib early in the first quarter last week. Things will be a lot different in Super bowl 48 when they face Seattle who has held 7 straight opponents to fewer than 20 points. The quality of the opponents in the streak was not made up of the offensively challenged Jaguars, Texans and Jets, but instead included the Saints 2, 49ers 2 and Arizona.

The Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for weeks but will arguably be facing the weakest defense since hosting the Vikings on November 11th when they put up 41 points. Not to say that they will put up 41 on the Broncos who themselves have held their last 4 opponents to under 20 points. But, they’ll have some opportunities in the passing game. The public has boosted the line at the square books to 3 giving us the better running team with the better defense getting 3 points. We’ll bite.

Take the Seattle Seahawks +3 at .

Bet this game at and Lay -105 instead of -110 on this game!

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